“Democracies under Pressure: Polarization, State Capacity, and the Brazil-US Relationship

Abstract

Brazil and the United States face parallel democratic stress tests. In the United States, polarization and veto-heavy institutions hinder housing, infrastructure, and clean energy. In Brazil, party fragmentation preserves formal governability but increases the cost and fragility of decision-making. As US polarization encourages more transactional geoeconomic statecraft, partners such as Brazil face persistent uncertainty. Under these conditions, the article argues that Brazil-US cooperation is more likely to endure when anchored in delivery, including contracts, procurement, shared standards, and supply chains that generate practical interdependence.